it is quite possible the Democrats would lose the general election. Hear me out. And don't dismiss what I write just because I am now an Obama supporter and someone who decided more than a month ago that the way Clinton was running her campaign morally disqualified her, at least in my mind.
For Clinton to get the nomination she would have to continue the scorched earth policy we saw down the stretch in Pennsylvania - with an ad featuring Osaba bin Laden, with robocalls distorting Obama's record on abortion and guns, with constantly attacking him and showing no shame for how it was done.
Were Clinton to succeed in persuading enough super-delegates to give her the nomination, two things would happen in short order. !) she would attempt to force Howard Dean out, abandoning the 50 state strategy. 2) She would find that she had lost much of the black vote.
It is not that she would have beaten Obama, because she would not have. She would have succeeded in manipulating the process in way that would be perceived by many African-Americans as unfairly denying him what he had won within the rules.
And while it might not show up now in general election polling matchups, that could be very costly in a general election.
Particularly were McCain to put a black on the ticket, say a black woman, say Condi Rice.
Yeah, she has never run for office, and he is not such a good candidate. And he'd have to persuade the base that she would toe his line on things like choice and affirmative action even as she might be able to persuade some people that she could moderate him. And given his age she might well be able to run for president on her own in four years.
I think back six years ago in Maryland. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend chose a white former Republican as her running mate, seriously irritating the African-American community. Whereupon Bob Erlich turned to Michael Steele as his running mate. And in one of the most heavily Democratic states a Republican got elected governor. It is not that he drew that many black votes, but the black turnout in Baltimore and PG Counties was not what it could have been.
And in a presidential, a depressed black vote puts Pennsylvania into play, potentially puts Ohio out of play. That's for starters. And could it be that Illinois might come into play because of anger over how their favorite son had been treated?
My wife insisted I write this when I mentioned the thought to her. I was up because of a sinus problem.
Perhaps I am doing what I often accuse my wife of doing - "awfulizing". And yes, I am no fan of what the Clintons now represent, not only in politics but in policy and in who would gain access to their White House. And I have made clear my belief that she would be devastating down ballot.
When I wrote of my reasons of no longer being able to vote for Hillary Clinton, much of what we have seen recently had not fully happened, but it was clear how the campaign was going to be run. I cannot say I am surprised at what I have seen from the campaign.
I have to hope that the superdelegates have sense enough to realize that if they are perceived as unfairly denying Obama the nomination, the long-term damage it will do to the party is almost incalculable.
That is my sorrowful outburst for the evening.
Do with it what you will.
Peace.
UPDATE I was thinking aloud. My wife strongly suggested I write it up. I thought a few people will tell me why I was wrong, and the diary would simply scroll down, like many other diaries. I do have to get to sleep. Let me touch on a few points before I retire
- I mentioned Rice because her name immediately came to mind. I am well aware of the stories that she is not interested, but FWIW I know someone who has been mentioned on the Dem side who has said s/he is not interested in 2nd spot but who would be willing to listen.
- The Clintons have had surrogates well before Lanny Davis trying to force out Dean - I remember Carville moving in that direction. And while Rahm Emanuel, having conflicting loyalties for the nomination, has so far stayed neutral, I also remember him arguing with Dean about how the DNC chair wanted to approach the campaign.
I do not claim the diary is thoughtful or insightful. It was a set of thoughts. My wife thought it worth sharing. I agree with her assessment. And even if I am offbase, or overly worried, it is worth noting that some of what I say touches on concerns of others that are quite real.
I am not African-American. Many of my students are, however, and while most are too young to vote they have expressed increasing anger at how they perceive Obama being treated. I suppose that factored into this as well.
I cannot dialog any further now. I do promise to read all comments eventually, but my primary focus starting this morning has to be preparing my AP students for their exam on May 5.
Peace.